Guest Column: Our Economy: Up or Down?

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There is much world-wide and national attention focused on mysterious connections between the Russian government and our own.
Investigations are being conducted by several governmental agencies, the Congress and the media.
Yet, our economy also remains a big mystery, showing both positive and negative signs.
On the one hand, the stock market on March 1 reached a new milestone of 21,000 on the Dow Jones average of blue-chip stocks.
In these circumstances, people feel good about their retirement accounts, among other investments.

There is much world-wide and national attention focused on mysterious connections between the Russian government and our own.
Investigations are being conducted by several governmental agencies, the Congress and the media.
Yet, our economy also remains a big mystery, showing both positive and negative signs.
On the one hand, the stock market on March 1 reached a new milestone of 21,000 on the Dow Jones average of blue-chip stocks.
In these circumstances, people feel good about their retirement accounts, among other investments.

Inflation rising
On the other hand, the U.S. inflation rate in January of this year reached 2.5%, the highest since March of 2012.
Only last July, the inflation rate was below 1%.  A little over a year ago, oil was less than $30 a gallon; it is now over $50.
Locally, the new Village 605 Project on Katetta in Los Alamitos promises a new Whole Foods store and a total of 113,800 square feet of retail shops and restaurants.
On the other hand, nearby stores like restaurant Blake’s Place and Coastline (Goodyear) Auto Care on Los Alamitos Blvd. have recently closed.
In December, the Cypress headquarters of Real Mex Restaurants announced the closing of six El Torito and Acapulco restaurants in Southern California, including Long Beach and Torrance.
The company is closing eight more stores elsewhere in California and Nevada.

Half full or half empty?
So is our economic glass half full or half empty? While the new Whole Foods store on Katella is a positive sign, the parent company is actually closing nine stores by April, including two stores in California.
Whole Foods as a company now has issues. Its latest latest quarterly report showed “same store sales” declining by almost 2.5%. Their per-store sales growth numbers have been declining since 2012.
However, the local news in housing prices has been good. OC homes sales prices were up roughly 6% last year.  That’s nice for sellers, but buyers are having to pay higher prices and borrow at higher interest rates.
One indicator of the health of the economy is household purchasing power and that often depends on how much debt people have.  The latest figures show that American households increased their debt by 460 billion dollars last year, the largest increase in almost a decade.
American household debt is now within 0.8% of 2008 levels, and we all know what happened then.  [Please look it up in the history books if you don’t remember, it’s too painful for the rest of us to discuss.]
While incomes have slightly increased with increasing inflation, real wages have stagnated since the 80’s. The bottom-line question for our national and local economy is whether consumer purchasing power can keep businesses afloat.
If people can’t afford to buy what businesses are selling, increases in stock market prices and real estate won’t be able to save our economy.

Joel Block is a retired attorney living in Rossmoor.

–This column appeared in the March 8, 2017 print edition of the News Enterprise.